🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.