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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.